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Cargando... Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (2008)por Robert J. Shapiro
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What will life be like in America , Europe , Japan or China in the year 2020? As everyone's lives across the world are become increasingly interconnected by globalization and new technologies quicken the pace of everything, the answer to that question depends on the fate and paths of the world's major nations. In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro, former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman/Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years. Though that time span seems brief, Shapiro foresees monumental changes caused by three historic new forces-globalization, the aging of societies, and the rise of America as a sole superpower with no near peer- will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions. What jobs will therebe for you and your children? What will happen to your health care? How safe will you be at home or abroad? Answers to these questions will depend, even more than today, on where you live in the world: - Even as China expands its military and its economy, America will be the world's sole superpower for at least the next generation, and continue to lead efforts to preserve global security and stability. - The U.S. and China will be the world's two indispensable economies, dominating the course of globalization. - Globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing and millions of high-end service jobs from advanced countries like the US, to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations. - Europe's major nations and Japan will face the prospect of genuine economic decline and critical problems in their retirement pension systems, moving further towards the periphery of global economic and geopolitical power. - Every major country-the U.S., Europe, Japan, China-will face critical problems with their health care systems, and the entire world will face a crisis over energy and climate change.  If one adds the wildcard of possible, catastrophic terrorist attacks to this mix, the period between now and 2020 will be as challenging as any in modern times. Taking these deep global developments into account when planning for the future isa necessity. Robert Shapiro's clear-eyed Futurecast is the knowledge portfolio you need to prepare for the years to come. No se han encontrado descripciones de biblioteca. |
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That being said, there is some interesting content here. For one, this may be the first book I’ve read of late that doesn’t position the US as a dysfunctional, sinking ship. Essentially, Shapiro formulates something of a global prediction for the next decade (written before our “Great Recession,” though he acknowledged something like this was inevitable within his time frame). Despite the catchy/aggressive subtitle, it seems that, barring major catastrophes or sudden advances in energy-related technologies – his “wild cards” discussed in the final chapter – the US as sole superpower since 1989 will retain this standing without noticeable internal nor external changes. Japan and Europe (excepting Ireland) will continue an incremental decline and China will prove to be the other big story of 2020 – though the nation will still lag behind the US in global status for the next few decades. India is much further behind China and Russia is collapsing in on itself (life expectancy has fallen to 57?!?).
Of course he backs all of this up with innumerable statistics revolving around such areas as military prowess, GDP and relative immersions into developing economies, energy considerations, and the ratios between a retired populace and those of working/tax paying age. The latter seems to be one of the biggest immediate issues in Europe and Japan – sure to lead to unrest amongst many EU citizens. It’s a post-Boomer issue in the US as well, but countries like Italy and Germany will face extreme problems very soon. The other important difference between us and the “Old Country” is Europe’s more pronounced hesitancy to invest in, or focus on emerging markets (ie. developing nations). The US and China seem to have the edge on such global interconnectedness (or, perhaps, exploitation).
So the emergence of Globalism is primarily a US game – most other countries retain a structure that precludes full immersion. One example is the welfare statism of much of Europe that comes chock-full of government subsidies internally and protections against external competition. Such tight control and certain aloofness prevent the EU, as it stands, from gaining any significant ground on the global stage. Of course the US maintains a strong foothold in the new global economy through, among other things, a workforce that (somewhat) quietly suffers job instability and expects few health-care safety nets. Swell. The “Wal-Mart Effect” writ large.
This is all very interesting, but in some sense it comes off as business-as-usual. The risk of calling predictions for a mere decade out – if you disregard any major events as Shapiro admits he does – doesn’t seem to me a real big deal. When I hear a reference to 1999, my instinct tells me to think 3 years back. I suppose much has occurred since the 10th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s demise (does that even seem so long ago?) in regards to China, India, and the “Asian Tiger.” This seems to be the possible importance of this text. But ten years doesn’t seem a big leap in my mind. I mean Michael Jackson is/was still considered the “King” or that desultory music genre, yet had he produced anything memorable since the mid-eighties? Maybe it’s my innate stubbornness combined with a general American mental stasis (part of the “Mom and apple pie” triumvirate). I’ll also grant that I would promptly denounce any attempt to forecast, say, 2050, as pointless.
Oh look, I’ve gone on and on much like the subject of this review. At least Shapiro utilizes relevant information and statistics to shore up his circumspect prophesy. Additionally the writing is well considered. I never felt buried in an avalanche of statistics, though the numbers were there. Conversely, this might be better as a 50 page essay supplemented with 27 bar graphs. I think the content would fit. Whatever the case, I’d recommend for those desiring a worldly prognosis with much patience and/or long commutes. ( )