Robert J. Shapiro

There’s a consistency to this book – one that doesn’t explicitly express any particular partisan bias, nor any sensationalist flourishes – that, I wish to applaud. I really learned something about myself upon completion of Shapiro’s book. What I realized is that I really, really need some inclusion of flourishes to get through this type of book. It’s like a straight-laced, government policy report that you might hear someone reading on CSPAN at 3am. Selected as a commuter book during the weeks leading up to the winter holiday, it read well at thirty minutes a pop – though I often felt that the content was always the same. When, however, I pulled it out of my satchel – a much-weathered disaster my wife calls my “hobo bag” – I came to the conclusion that finishing the last 120 pages ranks just below a root canal procedure (because the procedure eventually ends). With 37 pages left I wagered that my son would more quickly complete a complicated, 1500 piece puzzle of a snowy, white-kid-filled scene by a Thomas Kinkade wannabe (yes – a Thomas Kinkade wannabe. I was stultified myself…). If you must know, I did manage to finish.

That being said, there is some interesting content here. For one, this may be the first book I’ve read of late that doesn’t position the US as a dysfunctional, sinking ship. Essentially, Shapiro formulates something of a global prediction for the next decade (written before our “Great Recession,” though he acknowledged something like this was inevitable within his time frame). Despite the catchy/aggressive subtitle, it seems that, barring major catastrophes or sudden advances in energy-related technologies – his “wild cards” discussed in the final chapter – the US as sole superpower since 1989 will retain this standing without noticeable internal nor external changes. Japan and Europe (excepting Ireland) will continue an incremental decline and China will prove to be the other big story of 2020 – though the nation will still lag behind the US in global status for the next few decades. India is much further behind China and Russia is collapsing in on itself (life expectancy has fallen to 57?!?).

Of course he backs all of this up with innumerable statistics revolving around such areas as military prowess, GDP and relative immersions into developing economies, energy considerations, and the ratios between a retired populace and those of working/tax paying age. The latter seems to be one of the biggest immediate issues in Europe and Japan – sure to lead to unrest amongst many EU citizens. It’s a post-Boomer issue in the US as well, but countries like Italy and Germany will face extreme problems very soon. The other important difference between us and the “Old Country” is Europe’s more pronounced hesitancy to invest in, or focus on emerging markets (ie. developing nations). The US and China seem to have the edge on such global interconnectedness (or, perhaps, exploitation).

So the emergence of Globalism is primarily a US game – most other countries retain a structure that precludes full immersion. One example is the welfare statism of much of Europe that comes chock-full of government subsidies internally and protections against external competition. Such tight control and certain aloofness prevent the EU, as it stands, from gaining any significant ground on the global stage. Of course the US maintains a strong foothold in the new global economy through, among other things, a workforce that (somewhat) quietly suffers job instability and expects few health-care safety nets. Swell. The “Wal-Mart Effect” writ large.

This is all very interesting, but in some sense it comes off as business-as-usual. The risk of calling predictions for a mere decade out – if you disregard any major events as Shapiro admits he does – doesn’t seem to me a real big deal. When I hear a reference to 1999, my instinct tells me to think 3 years back. I suppose much has occurred since the 10th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s demise (does that even seem so long ago?) in regards to China, India, and the “Asian Tiger.” This seems to be the possible importance of this text. But ten years doesn’t seem a big leap in my mind. I mean Michael Jackson is/was still considered the “King” or that desultory music genre, yet had he produced anything memorable since the mid-eighties? Maybe it’s my innate stubbornness combined with a general American mental stasis (part of the “Mom and apple pie” triumvirate). I’ll also grant that I would promptly denounce any attempt to forecast, say, 2050, as pointless.

Oh look, I’ve gone on and on much like the subject of this review. At least Shapiro utilizes relevant information and statistics to shore up his circumspect prophesy. Additionally the writing is well considered. I never felt buried in an avalanche of statistics, though the numbers were there. Conversely, this might be better as a 50 page essay supplemented with 27 bar graphs. I think the content would fit. Whatever the case, I’d recommend for those desiring a worldly prognosis with much patience and/or long commutes.… (más)