Indeholder "About the Author", "Introduction: Why Do We Need This Book?", "1. Understanding Energy: Fuels and Electricity", " Fundamental shifts", " Modern energy uses", " What is energy?", " Crude oil's rise and relative retreat", " The many advantages of electricity", " Before you flip a switch", " Decarbonization: pace and scale", "2. Understanding Food Production: Eating Fossil Fuels", " Three valleys, two centuries apart", " What goes in", " The energy costs of bread, chicken, and tomatoes", " Diesel oil behind seafood", " Fuel and food", " Can we go back?", " Doing with less - and doing without", "3. Understanding Our Material World: The Four Pillars of Modern Civilization", " Ammonia: the gas that feeds the world", " Plastics: diverse, useful, troublesome", " Steel: ubiquitous and recyclable", " Concrete: a world created by cement", " Material outlook: old and new inputs", "4. Understanding Globalization: Engines, Microchips, and Beyond", " Globalization's distant origins", " Wind-driven globalization", " Steam engines and telegraph", " The first diesel engines, flight, and radio", " Large diesels, turbines, containers, and microchips", " Enter China, Russia, India", " Globalization's multiples", " The long reach of Moore's law", " Inevitability, setbacks, and overreach", "5. Understanding Risks: From Viruses to Diets to Solar Flares", " Eating as in Kyoto - or as in Barcelona", " Risk perceptions and tolerances", " Quantifying the risks of everyday life", " Voluntary and involuntary risks", " Natural hazards: less risky than they look on TV", " Ending our civilization", " Some lasting attitudes", "6. Understanding the Environment: The Only Biosphere We Have", " Oxygen is in no danger", " Will we have enough water and food?", " Why the Earth is not permanently frozen", " Who discovered global warming?", " Oxygen, waterm and food in a warmer world", " Uncertainties, promises, and realities", " Wishful thinking", " Models, doubts, and realities", "7. Understanding the Future: Between Apocalypse and Singularity", " Failed predictions", " Inertia, scale, and mass", " Ignorance, persistence, and humility", " Unprecedented commitments, delayed rewards", "Appendix: Understanding Numbers: Orders of Magnitude", " Multiples in the International System of Units used in the text", "References and Notes", "Acknowledgments", "Index".

Hmm, han har klart tænkt og regnet på en masse. Jeg ved bare ikke om jeg er helt enig i konklusionerne. Kapitel 1 handler om energi og pointen er klart at vi har fået en meget stor stigning i velstand ved at bruge løs af fossile brændstoffer og ved at bruge dem effektivt. Kapitel 2 handler om at vi bruger fossile brændstoffer til at skaffe os mad. Kapitel 3 om ammoniak, stål, beton og plastik. Kapitel 4 om globalisering og global transport og kommunikation. Kapitel 5 om risiko. Kapitel 6 om ilt, vand og mad. Og global opvarmning. Og måske skal nogle læsere begynde med appendixet om at forstå store tal.

I 2020 var det globale forbrug ca 34 GJ brugbar energi pr menneske. I 1950 var det 10 GJ pr menneske. I et rigt samfund svarer det til at alle mennesker har ca 200 menneskers muskelkraft ekstra. Vi bruger også olie til smøremidler og asfalt. Og som grundlag for en masse kemiske processer. Elektricitet bruges til lys og til at drive motorer og pumper. Men stadig er det kun ca 18% af energiforbruget, der kommer fra el. Energitætheden af olie er meget større end den batterier kan klare, så el-fly over længere strækninger er ikke realistiske. (Vi mangler ca en faktor 20).
Moderne fødevareforsyning er afhængig af fossile brændsler til at lave gødning og til at transportere produkterne med. For at lave et kilogram kyllingkød skal man bruge ca tre kilogram korn. Almeria provinsen har ca 400 km2 under drivhustag. For at fiske skal man bruge diesel.
Haber-Bosch processen til at lave ammoniak. Plastik, beton og stål.

God bog til at få indsigt og forstand af. Han siger selv at han ikke forudsiger noget. ( )

This is my first dip into the much lauded social critique by Prof. Smil on the affairs of our civilization and its dependence on converting energy to useful purposes.

In this volume he focuses on four pillars of our civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. Without huge dependence on fossil fuels, he maintains, we would never be able to produce the volumes of these substances to drive our civilization forward.

He provides a convincing case, for example, that without manufactured fertilizers we would not be able to feed one-half of the world’s population.

Decarbonization of our food system, he believes, is an unobtainable delusion without significant changes the diet of people in developed nations, significant reductions in food waste, and allowances to African nations where malnourishment is still a significant social ill.

While his facts are compelling, the disorganization of his thoughts I find distract from the tale.

Smil is a realist at heart and doesn’t see the point in charging ahead with the empty promises of government intervention on climate change without social commitment at the grassroots.

He doesn’t accept prima facie some of the doomsday scenarios environmentalists foist on the narrative, scenarios his cases seem to support. ( )

This book presents multiple facts on our history and where it'd take us in the coming years. "The pillars of modern civilization are cement, steel, plastic, and ammonia." - we'll need some groundbreaking inventions to get rid of these essentials that depend primarily on fossil fuels. We need to start something serious right now however, we'll not see the outcome anytime soon. Despite that, we need to start something soon. ( )

La rivoluzione informatica e l'avvento dell'AI rischiano di farci dimenticare la materialità della società contemporanea. Discutendo di energia, ammoniaca, cemento, plastica ed acciaio Smil ci riporta prepotentemente con i piedi per terra: per costruire un futuro sostenibile occorre avere chiaro lo stato delle condizioni esitenti e con questo libro di alta divulgazione offre una serie impressionante di dati e di studi per orientarci con più sicuro realismo nel mondo di oggi. ( )

This is an awesome book. Taught me so much about... how the world really works (surprise surprise).

Some big takeaways:

1. Carbon is a pollutant. Let's treat it as such.
2. Even if we do really well, it will be impossible to remove it from all our industrial processes. If we did, we'd have to go back to the Stone ages.
3. Therefore, we need to remove it. Pure and simple. As a result, I've started funding some direct air capture.
4. We need to do nuclear. Nuclear power is inexpensive and does not emit carbon. If ahs an excellent safety record. Most important - unlike carbon, the dangers it poses are not systemic.

Very well worth reading. Thank you for educating us all, Vaclav Smil!