A friend mused recently at a dinner party that a few years ago everything seemed to be fine with China: we welcomed their students and their tourists...they were our greatest trading partner, they were investing in Australia etc. And now....just months later.... everything seemed to have gone sour; they are restricting our imports, we have condemned China over human rights and over Hong Kong, and their expansionism in the South China Sea, and requested/demanded an investigation into the outbreak of the Covid 19 virus, and demanded an apology over a doctored facebook page.
So this up-to-date, well informed, and balanced book by Geoff Raby comes at a good time as far as my friend and I are concerned. I have recommended that he read it because my summation of the wealth of detail is somewhat lacking.
Raby, enjoyed a good reputation within DFAT circles as far as I could ascertain and I crossed paths with him a few times in my own professional work and was impressed. He also has good credentials having been ambassador in China and, probably more important, he served there as First Secretary from 1986. I think as First Secretary one is low enough in the diplomatic pecking order to be able to get a real feel for the country and its people..and more importantly to learn the language. Over the period 1986 to the present, Raby has been able to observe, first hand the dramatic transformation of Beijing ...and China from the levels of third world standards of living to those of a modern advanced economy. And, indeed, an economy on the verge of being a super power. Depending on how one cuts it, China is already the largest world economy on a purchasing power parity basis and by 2030 will probably surpass the USA on a nominal dollar basis. The way the USA is going at the moment in terms of managing the Corona Virus and political turmoil might mean that China outgrows them earlier.
Raby, sensibly approaches his topic from the Chinese perspective. They tend to see the world as threatening; surrounded on all sides by neighbours who are not allies (with the possible exception of Pakistan) and with some of whom they have actually been to war in recent times....India, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Russia. He points out that within the space of 20 years, China has become very dependant upon imports of both oil and iron ore and through this dependancy it is vulnerable to US pressure on shipping lanes. This vulnerability is a significant factor in the current Belt and Roads initiative to link up with new allies or, at least, have a degree of alternative access to raw materials.
There is a nice throw-away line there: Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean that you're not being followed. And we have the interesting scenario of China suddenly finding itself a superpower ...landing spacecraft on the other side of the moon, nuclear armed, with long memories of being humiliated at the hands of western (and Japanese) colonial powers and even longer memories of being the world's major super-power for thousands of years. There seem to be some issues of coming to grips with all this power. And power now, rests very firmly in the hands of the Communist Party and any moves to change this will be resisted mightily.
Against this background, Australia is viewed, pretty much as a puppet client of the USA......not helped by Scott Morrison (Prime Minister) being awarded one of the US Military's highest honours by Donald Trump: The Legion of Merit in December 2020. And not helped by a number of hamfisted diplomatic blunders by the Morrison Govt: Leading the charge on demanding an investigation into the origins of the Corona virus; Leading the charge (after the USA) on banning Huawei; demanding an apology from China for a doctored facebook page, raiding local academics with links to the Chinese embassy. (I wonder how Raby would feel if his Chinese friends were raided because he was part of the Australian Embassy in Beijing and was trying to establish "contacts" in the Chinese establishment. I mean, that's what diplomats do).
He touches on the unhealthy militarisation of Australia (led by Morrison with getting the Military to take over Border Protection) and the unhealthy hysteria about security...driven by ASIO, ASIS and the rest of the defence/security establishment. After all, they benefit by security scares.....bigger budgets, more staff, more promotions, more overseas trips, more importance in domestic affairs etc. So they have a vested interest in talking-up the dangers.....and hiding the evidence under the cloak of secrecy. Clearly they were wrong about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I have even less faith in their calls now. But they are fuelling the anti Chinese fires in Australia.
Raby chooses his words carefully but essentially makes the point that Australia has to come to grips with the fact that the world order is changing and we need to recalibrate. We've already had a couple of ex prime ministers......Fraser, Whitlam, Keating, (from opposite sides of the political spectrum) saying that we should no longer be "going all the way with the USA" ...that the ANZUS alliance needed re-thinking and we could no longer rely on the USA to bail us out if we got into a "spot of bother". Certainly, they left us isolated with East Timor. He constantly refers back to the refrain (attributed to Thucydides with the Athenians responding to the Melians (who wanted to remain neutral in the war with Sparta).."the standard of justice depends on the equality of power to compel and that … the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept". I don't think Raby actually quotes it exactly like this ...but the concept is the same. Unfortunately, that leaves Australia having to "accept what we have to accept"......either from the Americans or from China. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that being America's "Deputy Sheriff" is not a great long term (or even short term) strategy for Australia.
A couple of "unforced errors": Figures 5. and 6. seem to have scrambled the key descriptions (eg Fig 6. 2nd line reading "China's iron ore imports as a percentage of domestic oil consumption" ..when it should be "as a percentage of domestic ORE consumption" and elsewhere (p148) he says that India's exports to Europe in 2018, (about $62 Billion from Fig 13.) were 75% higher than their exports to China (about $16 Billion from Fig. 11)...well that looks like 290% higher to me. Ah well easy to make slips like this in the editing ...though Raby presided over the East Asia Economic Unit in DFAT that produced some really impressive work, as I recall, in the early 1990's.....and would not have tolerated errors of this sort by his staff.
Raby looks closely at the role that India may play in future relations with China (and Australia)...but, as I read it he thinks that it is "wishful thinking" to think that India will strongly align itself with the USA in an anti-China Coalition.
What's Raby's solution? Well, it IS a bit weak, I think. It's that we start by recognising that for the first time in our (modern) history, we are alone in the world. Therefore we should be seeking coalitions with other countries that seek order and stability in east Asia ......he doesn't actually suggest who these might be but Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan might come to mind. He does make the strong point that we need to maintain a strong defence and increase our expenditure on cultural diplomacy......well he would say that wouldn't he? But I think he's right and he has a significant section of the book devoted to the importance of "soft power"...international credibility....which China lacks. Australia has it but are rapidly squandering our soft power with the Morrison government's foot dragging on climate change issues.
Overall, an excellent and timely book which should be read by all our political representatives and I've certainly recommended to a number of friends....including my dinner party "muser". I give it 5 stars. ( )