Orrin H. PilkeyReseñas

The reality is that I've already picked up a lot of the points the authors make by (dare I say it) osmosis, but if one is looking for a nuts-and-bolts examination of the issues of living by the sea in 21st century America you could do a lot worse than this booklet, which is aimed at the average American homeowner, small businessman, and tax payer. The long-term picture is that many large urban communities in coastal areas are going to be submerged (particularly in Florida); that shouldn't be news at this point. However, the medium-term issue is the inundation of vulnerable infrastructure (roads, harbors, industrial installations, etc.), and that is probably where the United States as a society is really going to get caught out.½

In 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. It suffered from an immense category five hurricane with 174mph winds combined with a 28 foot storm surge. Safety measures put in place failed, either because of poor design or substandard materials. Two thousand deaths and $100b of damages later it was one of the worst storms ever to hit America.

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Government administrators and policy makers use quantitative mathematical models to form future environmental policies. The authors of this book assert that these models are basically useless, that they lead to policies that make things worse, not better.

These models are filled with assumptions, suppositions and several pure guesses. "Fudge factors" are included to come up with an acceptable answer. Politics is frequently involved. An example is when the Canadian government said that the Grand Banks fishing area was in good condition, when "collapse" was a much more accurate description.

The EPA has required that the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal site must be safe for the public for the next 10,000 years. Based on current models, that is absurd enough, but, in 2004, a federal appeals court ruled that the safety of the repository must be assured for up to one million years. Really? That is longer than Homo Sapiens has existed, and there will be at least one major advance and retreat of glaciers, with corresponding huge changes in climate.

Open pit mines are frequently dug beneath the level of the local groundwater. Constant pumping of water keeps the mine dry. When the mine is abandoned, the local water, filled with all sorts of chemicals from the mine, fills the pit. How to predict things like the balance between inflow and outflow of water from the lake, acid production, and chemical reactions within the new lake?

Perhaps it would be better to say, for instance, "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise over the next hundred years" instead of "Given current conditions, the ocean level will rise by (a specific number) over the next hundred years." Researchers freely admit that the models are full of flaws, but, until someone comes up with something better, they will continue to use them.

Written for the non-scientist (like yours truly), this book is very thought-provoking, and injects some much needed skepticism. It's a must-read of a book.

Save our shores

The Last Beach by Orrin H. Pilkey, Jr., and J. Andrew G. Cooper (Duke University Press, $19.95).

Everybody loves a walk on the beach. Unfortunately, some of our favorite sandy spots may not be around much longer. Truth be told, you’ve probably already noticed changes along your favorite shores, though some are in much worse shape than others.

In The Last Beach, Orrin H. Pilkey, Jr., and J. Andrew G. Cooper, who have written on shoreline ecosystems and preservation together and separately, detail the threats to our shores and coastlines from development, rising sea levels, more devastating storms linked to climate change, and, ironically, the very seawalls and jetties designed to protect beaches.

In a comprehensive—and understandable for the non-oceanographer—overview of the state of the world’s shores is a call to action, as well: Unless we protect our shores as the treasures that they are, with unique and irreplaceable resources and ecosystems, before long, no one will be building castles in the sand.

Reviewed on Lit/Rant: www.litrant.tumblr.com½

A shortish (200 pages) look at the problem of rising sea levels. It raised a lot of interesting points that I hadn't thought of. The causes and scope of rising sea levels were covered well, but the authors barely touched on the consequences for large urban areas like New York, Tokyo, and Singapore. They strongly advocate "strategic relocation of infrastructure" (moving inland), instead of barriers and beach replenishment, which are extremely expensive and resource intensive, are not sustainable, and cause more problems in the surrounding areas.½

The Rising Sea distinguishes itself amid the recent outpouring of climate change books with its tight focus, which is on the human consequences as oceans levels climb. Geologists Pilkey and Young forecast an "inevitable" rise in the global sea level of as much as 7 feet over the next 100 years.

Careful descriptions throughout the book of how rising seas are likely to affect particular locales give the predictions a human dimension and illustrate some of the attendant threats that will have to be considered, among them shoreline retreat, salinization of water supplies, and storm surges that could force the abandonment of entire island nations, such as the Maldives.

Somewhere, there should be a book that clearly presents the limits of mathematical models of nature to the general public. It's an important topic. Although this book attempts to do so, it ultimately fails due to its authors' faulty argumentation and their evident bias towards qualitative modeling.

A superb popular introduction to the geology of beaches and barrier islands and the complexities of coastal zone management. Its central thesis--that beaches are dynamic systems that we try to hold in place (and build on) at our peril--is both enormously important and (still) widely ignored. I read it (borrowed from the Geology Library) while in grad school, and acquired my own copy some years later.