Pulse en una miniatura para ir a Google Books.
Cargando... The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (edición 2007)por Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Información de la obraEl cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable por Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Top Five Books of 2014 (507) Books Read in 2016 (1,503) » 12 más Filosofía - Clásicos (189) Guttabois (14) infjsarah's wishlist (150) Animals in the Title (174) My List (216) Cargando...
Inscríbete en LibraryThing para averiguar si este libro te gustará.
¿Qué es un cisne negro? Para empezar, es un suceso improbable, sus consecuencias son importantes y todas las explicaciones que se puedan ofrecer a posteriori no tienen en cuenta el azar y sólo buscan encajar lo imprevisible en un modelo perfecto. El éxito de Google y You Tube, y hasta ell 11-S, son “cisnes negros”. Para Nassim Nicholas Taleb, los cisnes negros son parte integrante de nuestro mundo, desde el auge de las religiones hasta los acontecimientos de nuestra vida personal. ¿Por qué no podemos identificar este fenómeno hasta que ya ha sucedido? Según el autor, ello se debe a que los humanos nos empeñamos en investigar las cosas ya sabidas, olvidándonos de lo que desconocemos. Ello nos impide reconocer las oportunidades y nos hace demasiado vulnerables al impulso de simplificar, narrar y categorizar, olvidándonos de recompensar a quienes saben imaginar lo “imposible”. El cisne negro: El impacto de lo altamente improbable es un libro de 2007 del autor y ex operador de opciones Nassim Nicholas Taleb. El libro se centra en el impacto extremo de eventos atípicos raros e impredecibles, y en la tendencia humana a encontrar explicaciones simplistas para estos eventos, retrospectivamente. trata de descifrar las reglas y la lógica de la suerte, la incertidumbre, la probabilidad y el saber en base a un fenómeno llamado “Cisne Negro”, que en esencia es un fenómeno altamente improbable que determina la realidad de forma muy profunda. http://www.papelenblanco.com/ensayo/ael-cisne-negroa-de-nassim-nicholas-taleb Un libro interesante, aunque en ocasiones un poco complejo, sobre cómo percibimos (más bien cómo no lo hacemos) los elementos que pueden tener un gran impacto en nuestra vida personal y social. Se ha hecho más o menos popular por haber anticipado algunos de los elementos de la crisis financiera de 2008-09.
Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur. Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage. Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written. "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure. Pertenece a las seriesIncerto (2) Contenido enTiene como estudio aTiene como guía de estudio aPremiosDistincionesListas de sobresalientes
Business.
Sociology.
Nonfiction.
HTML:The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we dont know, now with a new section called On Robustness and Fragility. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan. No se han encontrado descripciones de biblioteca. |
Debates activosNingunoCubiertas populares
Google Books — Cargando... GénerosSistema Decimal Melvil (DDC)003.54Information Computing and Information Systems Theory Communication And Control Information TheoryClasificación de la Biblioteca del CongresoValoraciónPromedio:
¿Eres tú?Conviértete en un Autor de LibraryThing. Penguin AustraliaUna edición de este libro fue publicada por Penguin Australia. » Página de Información de la editorial Recorded BooksUna edición de este libro fue publicada por Recorded Books. |