The Four Horsemen

Perhaps time to have a thread devoted to major climate events, beyond the science reporting.

Cyclone's huge floods leave hundreds dead in southern Africa

Cyclone Idai swept across central Mozambique before dropping huge amounts of rain in neighboring Zimbabwe's eastern mountains. That rainfall is now rushing back through Mozambique, further inundating the already flooded countryside.

"It's dire," Caroline Haga of the Red Cross told The Associated Press from Beira. "We did an aerial surveillance yesterday and saw people on rooftops and in tree branches. The waters are still rising and we are desperately trying to save as many as possible."

Satellite images were helping the rescue teams target the most critical areas, Haga said. Rescue operations were based at Beira airport, one of the few places in the city with working communications.
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Torrential rain was still lashing the region on Tuesday, and Buzi town could be entirely submerged within 24 hours, the aid group said.

Hardest hit was Beira, where thousands of homes were destroyed.

Flood disaster likely just beginning over central US with troublesome season expected

Flooding will continue in waves and varying degrees of severity over the central United States, including a large part of the Mississippi River watershed, through the spring.

While high stream and river levels are common during the spring thaw, flooding that occurs is sometimes worse than other years.

This year will be one of the bad years for flooding in the Central states.
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It is possible that many parts of the Mississippi River will remain above flood stage through the spring and into the first part of the summer in the slow-moving natural disaster.

The evangelical MAGA-cap tards have all the answers to the above -

1. God's Will - not for us to understand - reread the book of Job.
2. God's punishment for sin (abortion, homosex, uppity women, tolerance of false religions and unbelief, etc.
3. God-ordained naturally occurring cycles in the climate - see #1 above
4. The Second Coming, coming soon to your neighborhood and all neighborhoods, plus The Rapture will end problem for the saved - those left behind please to enjoy the floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, streets ankle deep in blood, stars falling from the sky, etc.
5. The bible clearly says The End Time will arrive when the last Trump comes upon the scene.* Could it be stated any plainer than that? Can't all you fucks READ?!

Any questions? ...................... I didn't think so.

* 1 Thessalonians 4:16 - and

https://www.christianpost.com/news/is-donald-trump-the-last-trump-before-jesus-c...

A friend's son-in-law was trapped in Beira. He's now safely out, but "he is still in shock. He survived 12 hours by wedging himself under the washbasin as the 120mph wind tore the roof off and smashed the windows of his hotel - one of the better-built buildings. Our hearts go out to the people there." We're now watching on the news the devastation it is causing in Zimbabwe.

Cyclones and floods happen, and have always happened. While tragic, weather is not the same as climate. It proves, or disproves, nothing.

ETA: I don't dispute that climate change is happening, but not every bit of weather is related to it, and exaggerating a problem usually ends up backfiring, and discrediting your own argument.

Tone deaf

>5 madpoet: You seem to be thr first person to mention climate change in this thread, so what is your point? Nit-picking about whether weather or climate would be a better vocabulary choice for the title seems a little petty.

>7 -pilgrim-:

"Nit-picking about whether weather or /climate would be a better vocabulary choice for the title seems a little petty."

Amazing! If you really don't understand that "weather" versus "climate" is precisely the key-point in any such discussion, then you simply lack the basic awareness to open and participate in such a discussion thread.

Unless this is just your idea of a fucking joke--in which case, yeah, it's hilarious.

Next.

>8 proximity1: What discussion? The stated purpose of this thread is recording natural disasters, rather than the science behind them.

Derailing into yet another debate on climate change is, of course, highly likely, but complaining about a topic that hadn't (yet) been mentioned is a straw man if ever I saw one.

The size of these disasters is amazing. I, perhaps, don't have the historical or science perspective to know for sure; but it's looking like an alarming trend to me. With these weather events and the shocking decay of ecosystems, I do fear we are experiencing end times. At least TEOTWAWKI.

Quoting YOU:

" The stated purpose of this thread is recording natural disasters,"

No, it isn't.

Quoting the thread's author's words, verbatim:

... "a thread devoted to major climate events"...

(Emphasis added)

So, in addition to not understanding the importance here between "climate" versus "weather" you also simply don't know how to read well.

>10 2wonderY: Horrifying of course, but not amazing.

When considering large scale disasters the sample is still too small to be statistically significant. As to TEOTWAWKI, our planet has been dying since the moment it was born, the universe is not a static state. Whether or not the change is being accelerated by mankind's actions requires an examination of the frequency of hundreds of small-scale events (many of which occur in low population areas, with no loss of life whatsoever) not focus on a few large ones, simply because thry have the greater human cost.

If you seriously want to look for signs of a forthcoming imminent apocalypse., as opposed to taking the Four Horseman as symbolic of the horrors the mankind is perennially vulnerable to, then I will bow out now.

>11 proximity1: So then why are all the examples given by the OP weather events. What is a climate event anyway? Climate has to do with long-term averages so just the term "climate event" is a contradiction.

I had to look up TEOFTWAWKI. First time I've seen/heard that acronym.

Ah. And I spelled it wrong. TEOTWAWKI

>13 jjwilson61:

"So then why are all the examples given by the OP weather events. What is a climate event anyway?" ...

There aren't any "climate 'events'" that we can point to. The "climate" emerges over a long period. In that respect, its 'events,' such as they might be considered "climatic," are themselves long in duration--longer than a human lifespan. As >5 madpoet: pointed out, the fact that "all the examples given by the OP (are) weather events"; and this is problematic since "climate" isn't reducible to "weather."

I agree with you that: "Climate has to do with long-term averages so just the term 'climate event' is a contradiction."

But that's not my fault. I''m pointing out that climate is something other than transitory weather.

This is a confused thread. But >5 madpoet: doesn't bear the responsibility for its being confused; >1 2wonderY: does.

>16 proximity1: The proof of what this thread is really about is in what 2wonderY posted, which is indeed a recording of natural weather disasters, as -pilgrim- noted, and you came down on him pretty hard for stating. It looks like the use of the word climate in the OP was a mistake.

>17 jjwilson61:

In fact, it was >5 madpoet: where it was noted that the OP described "weather" events and not what was termed "climate"; and, oddly enough, >7 -pilgrim-: criticized >5 madpoet: for this.

And that's where I came in: criticizing >7 -pilgrim-: for having written,

"Nit-picking about whether weather or /climate would be a better vocabulary choice for the title seems a little petty."

So, if you agree that there's a vocabulary problem in the OP concerning the distinction between "climate" and "weather," then you should have been more sympathetic to both >5 madpoet: and >8 proximity1:.

>18 proximity1: You were brought in by forces beyond your control to deliver a daily dose of the 'Best of Proximity1', and I thank you for this.

It's TEOTWAWKI - and I feel fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsxavPANO8s

>2 2wonderY:
Spring flooding could be 'unprecedented' with 200 million Americans at risk

Spring flooding has already been disastrous, and it's likely to get worse, federal forecasters announced Thursday. Floods could reach "unprecedented" and "potentially historic" levels.

Almost the entire eastern two-thirds of the nation should see flooding this spring, National Weather Service deputy director Mary Erickson said at a news conference on Thursday. Some 25 states are forecast to see "moderate" to "major" flooding, the weather service said.
…
It’s still too early to determine if human-caused climate change played what, if any, role in the flooding. However, scientists said the conditions are consistent with what they expect from global warming.

“You can think of climate change as steroids for these rain events,” Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler said.

Historic flood losses faced by Nebraska farmers “will impact food on your table”

spring field work delays
infrastructure damage - storage, processing, transport
feed losses
animal losses
water borne pollution

A briefing from within the humanitarian community:

Briefing: The response to Cyclone Idai (The New Humanitarian, formerly IRIN)

>21 2wonderY: Add to your list of effects, rain and cold temperatures interfering with bees and other pollinators of fruit and nut trees.

Cyclone Idai: Cholera cases reported in storm-hit Mozambique (BBC)

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned of the risk of other outbreaks, already noting an increase in malaria...

Cyclone Idai disaster compounds problems for Zimbabwe (The New Humanitarian)

Horn of Africa: Millions suffering due to prolonged drought (Al Jazeera)

Climate-related disasters affecting a region where up to 80 percent of the population is subsistence farmers.

>25 John5918: Reminds you of the drought and famine of the '80s in Ethiopia, doesn't it? So much for the hope that famine there was a thing of the past.

Then again, maybe things are getting better:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/11/ethiopia-drought-1984-econ...

'Doomsday vault' town warming faster than any other on Earth

According to Hanssen-Bauer (senior researcher at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute), the annual mean temperature in Longybearbyen in 1900 was -7.8°C. Since then, it has risen by 3.7°C -- more than three times the global average of around 1°C. The town increasingly experiences days when the temperature exceeds zero. "All the projections show that this will continue," she says.
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The changing climate could endanger the lives of Longyearbyen's residents, is starving the animals that live in its hinterland and has imperiled an institution which safeguards the world's crop supply.
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Just outside Longyearbyen is a building that must be protected at all costs.

Often referred to as the "doomsday vault," the Svalbard Global Seed Vault stores copies of the world's crop seeds. It was created to act as a back-up in case of catastrophes such as disease, pests, war -- and climate change.

The vault holds nearly 1 million packets of seeds originating from almost every country in the world, including everyday staples such as wheat and rice, as well as rare species such as the critically endangered Bermuda bean.

"Svalbard is the ultimate failsafe for biodiversity of crops," says Marie Haga, executive director of the Crop Trust, which built the vault in 2008 in partnership with the Norwegian government.

Haga says Longyearbyen is the perfect spot for the seed vault because the area is not prone to volcanoes or earthquakes, while the Norwegian political system is also "extremely stable."

The vault is set deep inside a mountain, looks a bit like the lair of a James Bond villain and is accessed by a 120 meter (400 feet) long tunnel. Due to the climate, it is relatively easy to cool the vault's air to the required temperature of -18°C (-0.4°F)

But as soon as the seed bank opened, it became clear there were going to be problems.

Typically, permafrost that is disturbed by construction work will re-freeze over time says Haga. But against expectations, the ground around the vault's entrance tunnel never re-froze.

In October 2016, during heavy rainfall, water flooded half the tunnel floor and froze into blocks of ice. Although the water did not reach the vault itself, "we knew action had to be taken", says Haga.

Statsbygg undertook 100 million Norwegian krone ($11.7 million) of reconstruction work, more than double the original cost of the structure.

"We replaced the steel entrance tunnel with a waterproof concrete tunnel," says Aschim. Statsbygg also transferred heat-producing electrical equipment from inside the tunnel to a separate facility and dug ditches to divert meltwater.

Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.

I get their newsletters. We've lost 20 seconds from the last calculation.

To: Leaders and citizens of the world
Re: Closer than ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight
Date: January 23, 2020

To say the world is nearer to doomsday today than during the Cold War—when the United States and Soviet Union had tens of thousands more nuclear weapons than they now possess—is to make a profound assertion that demands serious explanation. After much deliberation, the members of the Science and Security Board have concluded that the complex technological threats the world faces are at least as dangerous today as they were last year and the year before, when we set the Clock at two minutes to midnight (as close as it had ever been, and the same setting that was announced in 1953, after the United States and the Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear weapons).

But this year, we move the Clock 20 seconds closer to midnight not just because trends in our major areas of concern—nuclear weapons and climate change—have failed to improve significantly over the last two years. We move the Clock toward midnight because the means by which political leaders had previously managed these potentially civilization-ending dangers are themselves being dismantled or undermined, without a realistic effort to replace them with new or better management regimes. In effect, the international political infrastructure for controlling existential risk is degrading, leaving the world in a situation of high and rising threat. Global leaders are not responding appropriately to reduce this threat level and counteract the hollowing-out of international political institutions, negotiations, and agreements that aim to contain it. The result is a heightened and growing risk of disaster.

Australia - drought, fire, floods and now mice.

Mouse plague deals fresh blow to Australian farmers - BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ITgdgPUMuY

I couldn’t stay. I would have to leave.