Katherine Davis Fishman

This book is a history of the computer establishment. I might just as well say this book is a history of IBM because of its dominant position in the establishment. Nevertheless, Fishman's The Computer Establishment is a valuable source of facts, figures, and perceptive analyses of major milestones in computer history.

After giving respectful deference to the ancient abacus and to the 19th century difference engine proposed by Charles Babbage, Fishman proceeds to write the 20th century history of IBM and the Seven Dwarfs: Sperry Rand, Control Data Corporation, Honeywell, RCA, NCR, General Electric, and Burroughs. This moniker, "IBM and the Seven Dwarfs," was given by pundits to the mainframe computer business from 1960-1980, the era Fishman spotlights in her book, an era dominated by IBM. (IBM accounted for two-thirds of the revenues, the Seven Dwarfs split the remaining third among themselves.)

When General Electric and RCA left the computer business in the early 1970s, their places were taken by Xerox and Digital Equipment Corporation. Conveniently, the media could still speak about IBM and the Seven Dwarfs. But when Xerox left the business in 1975, no one took their place. Then there were six, and the moniker fell into disuse.

For me, the most interesting chapter in this book is Chapter 14 where Fishman sets her history lessons aside and picks up her crystal ball. She answers the question, "Where are we going?" Her book was published in 1981. My review is being written in 2008. Therefore, it behooves me to ask and answer a follow-up question, "How did her forecasts turn out?"

Fishman organized her thoughts about the future of computers under four headings: (1) Home Information Systems, (2) Electronic Banking, (3) Artificial Intelligence, and (4) Medicine. While gathering information for writing about these topics, Fishman talked to leaders in the computer industry about their dreams.

With respect to Home Information Systems, the people Fishman talked to did not see how it would be economically feasible for individuals to use personal computers to access large databases of information. Forecasters in 1981 could not envision the World Wide Web, Wikipedia, and Google. Score 0 for Fishman.

What about Electronic Banking? In 1981, big businesses and and big banks were already using Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT). But computer experts suggested to Fishman that individual consumers would be slow to adopt a cashless, paperless society, the ultimate aim of EFT. Score 1 for Fishman.

A test of Artificial Intelligence was proposed in 1950 by Alan Turing. Suppose you were seated at a computer terminal in a room by yourself. Out of sight in a different room was another human also seated at a terminal. There was also a computer in the room pretending to be a human seated at a terminal. You could type any question into your terminal. Both the human and the computer in the other room could see what you typed and either one could respond. If you couldn't tell the difference in their responses to your questions, the computer passed the Turing test of Artificial Intelligence. Computers in 1981 could not pass the test. The computer experts that Fishman interviewed believed that computers would get better at playing the Turing game, but that a computer with the intelligence (and wisdom) of a human being would forever be out of reach. As of 2008, AI has advanced about as far as the experts predicted it would, and no more. For example, Big Blue became really good at playing chess. But no computer has yet passed the Turing test. Score 1 for Fishman.

In 1981, the main use of computers in medicine was for record-keeping. Doctors using computers to aid them in diagnosing illnesses were in the minority. The doctors Fishman talked to did not think computers would ever find widespread use as substitutes for physicians in diagnosing illnesses. This appears to be an accurate forecast of the way things are in 2008. Score 1 for Fishman.

Fishman's total score is 3 out of 4 predictions correct. Could anyone else have done better in 1981 in forecasting the future of computing? I certainly could not have done better. For example, when I purchased my first microcomputer in 1977, a TRS-80, I could not imagine, even in my wildest dreams, the emergence of the Internet, a world-wide information superhighway, with billions and billions of records fully indexed, and searchable from a mobile phone that could be carried in your shirt pocket.

Although several mentions are made of personal computers in Fishman's history, the IBM PC had not yet made it to market when this book was published. Personal computers by other manufacturers arrived on the scene as early as 1974, but no mention is made of them, producers like Altair, Apple, Atari, Commodore, Radio Shack, SCELBI, Texas Instruments, and others. Although Fishman acknowledges the existence of personal computers in general, she decries the lack of software for personal computing. In doing so, she overlooks or ignores the strong emergence and acceptance of the VisiCalc spreadsheet in 1979, a sign of things to come.… (más)