Pip Coburn

Coburn seems to have extensive experience of analysing the financial success of the the introduction of new technologies but this book spends too much time demonstrating his credentials and citing examples of past failures before it gets into the useful material that contains the real value of the book. The case studies are superficial and offer little useful learning. To my mind, only the eleventh of the twelfth chapters was worth the time that I invested. In this chapter, Coburn describes the kind of book that he intended to write (and that I wished to read) and then provides a succinct catechism by which to evaluate the success potential of a new technology product.… (más)

The Change Function has some good aspects but it is too difficult to overlook the many weaknesses.
First the good:
The idea of the “change function” is not new but Coburn describes it well. A technology will be adopted if the pain of changing to the new technology is less than the pain to live without it. That’s it. It could have been described in a long article rather than a 200-page book. However, the length includes another good part of the book , Coburn’s pithy example cases. I do not necessarily agree with all his conclusions, but he does an excellent job of summarizing examples of technology investments that will succeed or will fail. The examples are concise and have good supporting evidence.

Now, on to the problems. The subtitle of the book should be “Why some *technology investments* take off and others crash and burn,” rather than “Why some *technologies* take off…” Coburn is an investment banker and writes the whole of the book from a point of view that somehow progress in technology should primarily serve to make money for investors. He blames the dot com bubble and crash on a crisis of technology. I would say that overzealous investors not inventors were the cause the tech bubble. It was greedy investing that inflated stock prices – not crappy technology.
While he admits that some of his example failures may be successful in another time, he does not give any idea of how long we should wait before we declare something a failure. Some of his success stories took a long time and I would bet that many investors jumped out of them before they hit big.
In addition, I can think of many counter examples of his change function law. There have been many inconvenient, difficult to learn technologies adopted in spite of their problems – cars, for example – and he does not address that possibility.

The Change Function gives some good rules of thumb for judging possible short-term technology investments for a quick turn around but does not really address fundamental issues about technology or product design.… (más)

Finally!

A unique and refreshing view of change; and it is penned by a former technology securities analyst. Who would have thought it?

Pip Coburn, who runs his own advisory firm and former managing director and global technology strategist, looks at his industries through the view finder of the consumer. And he does it in a lively style that delivers sharp insights into why a few technologies soar; while most fall flat on their faces.

It is simple. Yet, like many simple ideas it captures the essence of change. Ready?

People are only willing to change and accept new technologies when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of trying something new.

Quoting everyone from Machiavelli to Yoda, Coburn topples clichés about innovation and change spouted for years by overpaid gurus and the equally overpaid CEOs who employ them. In only takes a few pages of reading before you can answer questions that have been plaguing you for years, like:

• Why do you have so many passwords?
• Why your VCR flashes 12:00?
• Why your spell check Capitalizes words you Do not want capitalized?
• Who thinks a smart phone is smart?
• Who asked for interactive TV?

Pip Coburn is a keen observer. He views his field from a unique vantage point. Time spent with this book will give you new understanding of technology. Linger over its message for a while; you will become a wiser investor, manager, CEO or computer geek.

Penned by the Pointed Pundit
October 26, 2006
9:34:27 PM… (más)